We just got a reliable indicator saying that a US Recession is likely on the way

The spread between the 10 year and 1 year treasuries just did something that often signals a recession is on the way.

The spread shrank to the point they are almost at parity.

In fact they were at parity just a few days ago.

Sees:

(Source:

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The last few times this has happened it has signaled a recession was on the way.

In fact, each of the last two major recessions both saw this exact setup happen several months prior to the start of a recession.

The coronavirus may send us there.