We have news today of the agreement to end the US/Iran war and its 14 points. Will it actually stick? Hard to say.
I will be harshly critical of the US here, but the Iranian government is no paragon of virtue. Despite their evils, the attack against them remains unprovoked and unjust. There was no declaration of war, no obvious casus belli, and no public demonstration of an immediate danger to America. Never forget that.
When all is said and done, assuming the talk ends and action takes place, it looks like the war might be over. That is good regardless of "winners" and "losers." The people always lose on both sides in every war no matter which government clams victory.
The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran have jointly agreed in good faith on [ __ date] on the following:
I still find it hard to believe Iran will accept the US is acting "in good faith." They were in the middle of negotiations at the end of February when Israel and the US attacked them anyway.
1 — The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran and their allies in the current war are signing this MOU to declare the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and undertake from now on not to initiate any war or any military operation against each other, and to refrain from the threat or use of force against each other, and ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon. The final deal will confirm the permanent termination of the war on all fronts, including in Lebanon and other provisions of this paragraph.
That's pretty emphatic, but I doubt Iran has the control over Hezbollah, or the US has the control over Israel, to make this stick. I'm hoping for the best, but pessimistic about what we can really expect.
2 — The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran undertake to respect each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and to refrain from interfering in each other’s internal affairs.
That will be more difficult for the US than for Iran. The latter is far from saintly, but doesn't meddle outside their region. The US has built military bases and entangling alliances all over the world, and especially in the middle east. The US also has a long history of trade sanctions and other impositions against Iranian territorial integrity, internal affairs, and foreign affairs.
3 — The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran commit to negotiating and achieving the final deal in maximum 60 days, extendable with mutual consent.
Here's the danger. This is an agreement to further negotiations, not a real end to war. Based on what happened when the war began, I doubt this is a sincere offer from the US. "my" government has an abysmal track record.
4 — Immediately upon the signing of this MOU, the United States of America will begin the removal of its naval blockade and any disturbances or impediments against the Islamic Republic of Iran, and will fully end the naval blockade within 30 days. During this period, the traffic of vessels will be in proportion to the numbers of pre-war traffic being restored by the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States of America further undertakes to remove its forces from the proximity of the Islamic Republic of Iran within 30 days after the final deal.
We're back to what we had on February 27th, if not even better for Iran. What a victory!
5 — Upon the signing of this MOU, the Islamic Republic of Iran will make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels with no charge, for 60 days only, from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman and vice versa. The traffic of commercial vessels will immediately start, and considering the need for removing the technical and military obstacles, and demining by the Islamic Republic of Iran will be instated within 30 days. The Islamic Republic of Iran will conduct dialog with the Sultanate of Oman to define the future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz in discussion with other Persian Gulf littoral states in line with the applicable international law and the sovereign rights of coastal states of the Strait of Hormuz.
So many words to say the US just wants Iran to allow things to go back to basically the way they were before Iran was attacked.
6 — The United States of America undertakes with regional partners to develop a definitive, mutually agreed plan with at least USD 300 billion for the reconstruction and economic development of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The mechanism for the implementation of this plan will be finalized as part of a final deal within 60 days. All required licenses, waivers and permissions needed for the relevant financial transactions will be granted by the United States of America.
Here is the main sticking point for a lot of Americans. Where is this $300 billion coming from? Setting aside my unique perspective on government for the moment, and relying solely on what we all learned in civics class, the federal government represents the people. However, the people were not consulted for this war. Our representatives did not declare war. If we, who were never asked whether the war should happen, and many of us vociferously opposed, are now on the hook for $1,000-ish per adult, this is an absolute outrage.
Don't misunderstand, I am also outraged by the death and destruction visited upon the Iranian people, and they absolutely deserve some form of restitution, but this war was not chosen by the American people, and there was no immediate threat to the American people warranting warfare in response, so the American people absolutely should not be made to pay this cost.
I am also harshly critical of the government of Israel, but the Israeli people are in the same boat as us Americans as far as I know. Their government held no parliamentary hearings before sending an attack. Many Israelis have vocally opposed their government's attacks on Iran and Lebanon. Israel (the government) is absolutely responsible for war, but Israelis (the people) are not.
But the politicians who send people to war did not gain their wealth by productive voluntary endeavors. Everything governments have is the product of political plunder. They bear no burdens, Costs are pure externalities. This is the moral hazard of governmental power in plain view for all to see.
7 — The United States of America undertakes to terminate all types of sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran, including the United Nations Security Council resolutions, IAEA Board of Governors resolutions, and all unilateral US sanctions, primary and secondary, in an agreed upon schedule as part of the final deal. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America acknowledge the critical importance of the sanctions termination issue above mentioned, and expressed their intentions to immediately address these issues in the negotiations in order to achieve mutual agreement on them.
This is a pure win for Iran. That is good. Trade, real free trade, is the best foundation for peace between peoples. An old saying goes, "if goods do not cross borders, soldiers do." I'm sure legions of corporate bastards are looking at this as an opportunity for profit thanks to the exploitative atmosphere created by government intervention, but the overall prospect of open relations with the world will tend toward de-escalation of tensions.
8 — The Islamic Republic of Iran reaffirms that it shall not procure or develop nuclear weapons. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran have agreed to resolve the disposition of stockpiled enriched material pursuant to a mechanism that will be mutually agreed upon in accordance with the schedule mentioned in paragraph seven, with the minimum methodology to be down blended on site under the supervision of the IAEA. The two parties also agreed to discuss the issue of enrichment and other mutually agreed matters related to the Islamic Republic of Iran’s nuclear needs, based on a satisfactory framework being agreed upon in the final deal. The final deal will confirm the provisions of this paragraph. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran acknowledge the critical importance of the nuclear issues above mentioned. They express their intention to immediately address these issues in the negotiations in order to achieve mutual agreement on them.
The now-deceased Ayatollah Khamanei issued a fatwa against nuclear weapons ages ago. Iran belongs to the nuclear non-proliferation treaty. Before Trump tore up the JCPOA, Iran was undergoing regular inspections, and while MAGA points out every minor issue from inspection as proof of underhanded treachery, the overall picture was one of a peaceful civilian nuclear projects and no weapons. I don't trust any government, but I trust evidence.
According to the 2025 Annual Threat Assessment from March, before Trump's first strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities, "The IC continues to assess that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and Supreme Leader Khamanei has not authorized the nuclear weapons program he suspended in 2003. The IC is closely monitoring if Tehran decides to reauthorize its nuclear weapons program."
War hawks always see threats behind every corner, but actual evidence is, and has been, lacking for as long as I can remember. We are once again seeing Trump crowing victory over a situation which already existed before he started meddling.
9 — Pending the final deal, the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran agree to maintain the status quo. The Islamic Republic of Iran will maintain the current status quo of its nuclear program, and the United States of America will not impose any new sanctions and will not deploy additional forces in the region.
There go the belligerent ultimatums Trump shouted while continuing his belligerent illegal war. Again, victory means what we had on February 27th?
10 — The United States of America undertakes that immediately upon the signing of this MOU and until the termination of sanctions, US Department of Treasury will issue waivers for the export of Iranian crude oil, petroleum products and derivatives, and all associated services, including banking transactions, insurances, transportation, etc.
This might be an even better situation for Iran than February 27th, if it also includes the end of trade sanctions and restoration of frozen assets, speaking of which...
11 — The United States of America undertakes to make fully available for use the frozen or restricted funds and assets of the Islamic Republic of Iran upon the implementation of this MOU. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran will mutually agree on the procedures related to the release of these funds during negotiations. Such funds, whether retained in the original account or transferred, shall be made fully usable for payment to any ultimate beneficiary designated by the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States of America undertakes to issue all necessary licenses and authorizations accordingly.
Remember, the US seized Iranian assets has been blockading Iran with trade sanctions for many years. Ending both policies is a victory for the Iranian people, even if it also means a victory for their repressive government as well.
12 — The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran agree that an executive mechanism will be established to monitor the successful implementation of this MOU and the future compliance of the final deal.
Did you hear that? It was the sound of a million bureaucratic eyes popping as they foresee a lucrative perpetual career as useless functionaries.
13 — After signing this MOU, and subject to the beginning of the implementation of paragraphs 1, 4, 5, 10 and 11 of this MOU, and the continuing implementation of these measures, the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran will start negotiations regarding the final deal exclusively on the other paragraphs.
We've agreed to agree to future agreements until an agreeable agreement is agreed upon.
14 — The final deal will be endorsed by a binding UNSC resolution.
Oh, yeah, where was the UN during this squabble between UN member nations? Wasn't it supposed to prevent this kind of thing in the first place?
So, what is the end result, assuming this is signed? Peace is good. Unfortunately, I see far too many opportunities for the US to arbitrarily declare Iran to be non-compliant and start bombing them again. I have zero trust in Israel to help maintain peace. As an anarchist, I see all governments as usurpers and tyrants, and history has shown pessimism to be warranted. I hope for the best, but I doubt it's really over.
Almost exactly a year ago, Trump said, "We have completed our very successful attack on the three Nuclear sites in Iran, including Fordow, Natanz, and Esfahan. All planes are now outside of Iran air space. A full payload of BOMBS was dropped on the primary site, Fordow. All planes are safely on their way home. Congratulations to our great American Warriors. There is not another military in the World that could have done this. NOW IS THE TIME FOR PEACE! Thank you for your attention to this matter."
Will this all just escalate again next year? The US lost a war of choice just before a major national holiday and during a contentious election cycle. Iranian people suffered senseless death and destruction. The corrupt and abusive Iranian regime is fundamentally the same. The Iranian nuclear program will remain in place. Americans suffered price shocks, and will apparently be on the hook for reparations as our de facto empire continues to flail about like a toddler having temper tantrums. Democrats have ammunition against republicans, who in turn abandoned all their stated principles of fiscal responsibility and constitutional adherence. I have no faith in "my own" government, to say nothing of foreign states.
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