Elon Musk, Social Media Rage, & The Death of Nuance

in FreeSpeech13 days ago (edited)

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First things first: I am not an Elon Musk fanboy, simp, or cheerleader. I have a lot of doubts and concerns about him, his businesses, and his influence. However, any criticism of his critics is invariably assumed to be "taking his side." I want people to make better arguments, and I refuse to join bandwagons. Get over it.

What's this all about? The big news today is that Elon Musk is officially the world's first trillionaire following the initial public offering of SpaceX stock. This had made many people very angry and has been widely regarded as a bad move (bonus points to whoever gets that reference!) especially on Web2 social media. This rage is usually expressed in ways which demonstrate a fundamental misunderstanding of many basic principles.

The facts: Elon Musk owns 4.8 billion shares and 350 million stock options, or a 38% stake in SpaceX, to paraphrase the information in the Forbes article linked above. This is worth around $800 billion based on current market prices of approximately $160/share. When added to Tesla, The Boring Company, Twitter, Starlink, etc. it seems his net worth is thus north of $1 trillion dollars. This is a mind-boggling sum, and I share a general suspicion of anyone who accumulates so much wealth, but not for the same reasons as the social media meme machine.

That's just too much money!

It isn't money, it's the present market value of a business in which he owns a major stake. We aren't talking about Scrooge McDuck in a silo of coins here. If he sells his shares, it has two significant effects:

  1. An influx of liquid stocks dilutes the pool of available assets on the market. This increase in supply means a new equilibrium point with the demand curve on the market. If he sold 5 billion shares, they would bring in far less than $800 billion.

  2. For better or worse, SpaceX stock value is linked to Musk's ownership. Confidence in his business acumen is part of the reason people value stock in his company. If he divests shares, and thus ownership, the value people place on his company falls, potentially dramatically. Musk holding his shares is what many other shareholders value.

These are very basic principles, but social media rabblerousers invariably dismiss them, often openly. However, we can't have a serious discussion without building a foundation on facts. If these facts are in error, or omit further significant factors, feel free to chime in with a comment!

That money could be used for X, Y, and Z!

Suppose you did get $1.1 trillion from confiscating all of Musk's assets and nationalizing SpaceX. Then what? "Feed the hungry! Pay for schools! Build housing!" If giving government money and power fixed problems, we would live in paradise. That trillion-ish lump sum barely covers just the interest on the national debt for one year. That total debt is now pushing $40 trillion, by the way, and the "Big Beautiful Bill" raised the debt ceiling by $5 trillion. Trump also wants a trillion dollar military budget. A trillion here, a trillion there... before long, we're talking about real money!

What has Elon Musk done with his money? People value SpaceX because the Falcon 9 is one of the most successful rockets ever developed. SpaceX made reusable rockets into reality instead of science fiction. Starship is still in development, but shows real promise despite some very public failures. The Dragon capsule is a remarkable feat of engineering with a solid reliability and safety record thus far.

This isn't hero worship, it's a set of facts, and they matter regardless of what we think of Elon Musk or his overall business practices. He has done a lot with his wealth to build a remarkable space program. That was demonstrably a good use of money because people voluntarily pay for his services and voluntarily buy shares. This is a signal he is doing something a lot of people value.

Government does not have this feedback mechanism, and once again, we know what government does with many times as much money: it bombs people. It imprisons people for victimless "crimes." It colludes with corporations to build surveillance networks. The welfare programs and other "social services" aren't the primary function of government, it's a propaganda system to buy your belief in their legitimacy so they can continue committing evil.

Am I arguing Musk is a saint? No. Do I trust him? Well, I don't own shares of SpaceX, I don't drive a Tesla, I don't use Twitter, and I don't have internet via Starlink. Make of that what you will. But I have those choices even in our vestigial market. Government affords us no such choice, and still fails to handle issues X, Y, and Z.

That said, to the extent his businesses rely on government contracts and subsidies, I will certainly call him a dirty welfare whore. But that doesn't make him special. The military-industrial-prison complex is full of corporations doing less for the market and more evil for the government, so why is Musk suddenly Public Enemy #1?

We have a trillionaire before we have X, Y, and Z, and this proves something about our society!

This adds a layer of moralization to the arguments above, but is it really saying anything? The economy is not a zero-sum game. It is a false dichotomy to assert we, as a society or in any other way, had to choose between Musk becoming a trillionaire, and virtuous deeds. To the extent Musk built businesses which served consumer demands and employed people in productive ventures in a voluntary market, his profits are proof his system benefited everyone involved.

This isn't a moral statement, but it is a fundamental aspect of the market economy: voluntary exchange only occurs when both parties perceive a benefit. That benefit is real wealth. Half is measured in the transfer of money, the other half in the satisfaction of wants.

This does not mean everything Musk does is good, but it does throw a wrench in the works once you think about the nature of government. You must pay what they demand, or else. You will accept what they provide, and be grateful. That isn't a path to peace, prosperity, or progress no matter how you slice it.

Demanding government power is not virtuous. I would argue it is even less moral than Musk's dubious profits, because there is no element of consent, and no reciprocity. A society under a command economy is amoral at best in principle, but invariably deeply immoral in practice, no matter how the political class tries to sell it.

But Elon Musk is a fascist!

Sigh.

Do I trust him? No. Do I suspect he has covert and overt authoritarian tendencies? Yes. Has he gained a significant portion of his wealth through collusion with government? Yes. But terms like fascist and Nazi have very specific meanings, and the evidence that they apply to him is lacking.

The famous raised arm wasn't a Nazi salute.

DOGE was supposed to pare back government central planning and economic controls, whereas fascism demands state control over nominally-private business.

The US didn't have a federal department of education until less than 50 years ago, and paring that back is the opposite of fascist tendencies toward state-centered education.

For the love of all that is holy, please understand that words mean things, and applying labels to people you do not like is not an argument, especially when those labels objectively do not apply based on the evidence of word and deed. Again, he's been more than happy to benefit from pork-barrel spending, so I'm not proclaiming him a paragon of laissez-faire virtue here.

Politics, Perception, and Reality

Remember when Tesla was the darling of the left because he made electric cars cool? His personal faults could be overlooked until he joined Team Trump. When Trump won reelection in 2024, Musk was appointed head of the "Department of Government Efficiency," and there was a lot of uproar over his plan for cutting "essential programs," but what really came of that again?

Oh, right.

Nothing.

Trump broke his promises for fiscal responsibility, and Musk was ejected from the cult of personality because he didn't get the memo that it was all for show until inauguration was secured. yet this very public break from MAGA seems to have had no bearing on how people perceive Musk's politics.

So remember, Musk's entire net worth today would barely cover what the government plans to spend on turning foreign nations into rubble while creating orphans, widows, and parents who must bury their children.

Further, Elon Musk never directly taxed anyone. His rockets didn't grow from a cold war ICBM program. He hasn't blockaded Cuba or the Strait of Hormuz. He isn't sinking random boats on the South American coast. He isn't installing a network of surveillance cameras and A.I. profiling data centers (although I still don't trust Starlink), and he isn't running one of the most incarceration-crazed police systems in the world.

I'm not asking you to trust him. I don't trust him any further than I can throw him, and my back is seriously messed up.

I'm not asking you to treat his wealth as a sacred property rights claim. I don't think it all meets the criteria for that principle to apply.

I'm not asking you to respect him as an individual. The dude is sus AF, as probably no one actually would say, but screw it.

I am asking you to be better than every smooth-brained slack-jawed NPC ignoramus sharing nonsense memes on Facebook, or even more ironically, Twitter. Make sound arguments. Base them on verifiable data, not vacuous accusations. Build a case against bad ideas and destructive actions, not playground-level name-calling. Try to understand deeper economic principles before denouncing actions you dislike as "irrational" or "evil." You can do better, or at least I hope so.

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Yeah, pretty much agree. One of the things I've been saying for a couple years now is, "Don't bet against Elon. But understand he's not necessarily your friend". It's not so much that I think he's a villain (though I won't discount that possibility), but he's a very wealthy & powerful person with strong interests that might conflict with some of my own.

So in other words he's got his own goals, and they may not necessarily be our goals. For example, he marketed his purchase of Twitter as "freedom for social media users", and to be fair some improvements along those lines did happen. But certainly it stopped short of what many expected. IMHO his primary goal was taking advantage of the platform's infrastructure & massive user base to train his AI models and eventually turn it into a scaled-up US version of WeChat.

I suspect something of an ulterior motive with the SpaceX IPO as well, and how it's being marketed to the investors buying into the SpaceX IPO hype hoping it will make them insanely rich. While I think it will be likely be an excellent very long-term growth play and I will buy a little here and there when the price is reasonable, the IPO price (and especially the current price) has a high narrative premium attached to it that assumes all goals are accomplished without hiccups and on-time (pretty tall order in the space business). Near as I can tell, his priority is building an interplanetary space infrastructure and capability, and he's not above taking advantage of "dumb money" investors (who will both buy and sell their shares at the worst times) to fund that goal.

That being said, I do hope he's successful in pulling it off. This seems a lot like the buildout of the transcontinental railroad, and if successful it will enable a lot of opportunities for many, many people. And if I were forced to invest or loan my money to either SpaceX or the US government, at least I know an investment with SpaceX has a non-zero chance of actually turning a profit. 😉

I think that Tesla have done a lot to increase EV adoption and SpaceX have done amazing stuff in space. Musk is a very successful businessman, but I can still detest him as a person for several reasons. There's his support for extremist politicians and activists, his sexism and racism, his attitude to his trans daughter, the car crash that was 'DOGE' which is likely to cause massive death and suffering. Of course some will like him for those and others are getting rich from his business dealings.

I have no idea if he is happy. I've heard he works hard, but seems to spend a lot of time tweeting. I guess you can say he's driven.

I despise Trump for similar reasons and it's interesting how the two of them have fallen out. Maybe it's just a clash of massive egos. Labels like 'fascist' may not be helpful if you are into strict definitions, but there are some nasty and powerful people in this world when we need more hope.

I think that much wealth can screw you up. Bill Gates is pretty flawed, but seems to be trying to do some good. He gets abuse for that from some. It just feels like some of the mega-rich are just accumulating wealth and maybe it's so they can abandon this planet for the rest of us to deal with.

I got off Twtr and am unlikely to buy a Tesla, but I doubt Musk will care.

Critics of DOGE tend to just assume federal programs are necessary and beneficial, so anyone trying to end them is anti-social. The simple fact is, returning the federal government spending levels to those of Clinton would nowadays be seen as catastrophic austerity. The basic idea that government spending brings prosperity is a gospel which cannot be questioned.

Bureaucrats who rely on people not looking too closely at their offices like to equate themselves with whatever vague ideas the public has, too. For example, the Department of Education is only a few years older than I am, but people think without it, we would have people walking around spouting flat earth theories and claiming ancient aliens built everything. Wait...

Of course government spending has to be kept under control, but taking a chainsaw to it may not be the best approach. As I understand it the cuts to USAID left a lot of projects in the lurch and didn't save anything like what he promised. Losing research and inoculation programmes are predicted to lead to many thousands of extra deaths. This is from the guy who said he would help cure world hunger and then didn't. I know it's not easy or cheap, but it is a worthy goal.

Foreign aid has also been cut in the UK and there is talk of spending more on defence. Issues with climate change, water and land usage will lead to more conflict and can't be fixed with weapons or 'AI'.

As I understand it, USAID is more government officially laundering money and funding its interventions abroad than it is about helping those in need. Besides, charity and foreign aid are not constitutionally authorized federal activity. Our government is robbing us to buy political favor elsewhere? Hell no.

Buying influence abroad is common. Just look at what China is doing. That said, plenty of countries struggle to supply basics we take for granted and saving lives is worth something. The cost of USAID is a fraction of the latest conflict with Iran.

There is probably enough wealth to solve a lot of issues, but it's not distributed.

Of course there will be corruption, but that is happening within the US too.

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This is a level headed nuanced piece and I appreciate that. Many people speak with certainty on whatever gets their tribal instincts aroused. We might all be better citizens if we form loosely held opinions developed after as much fact checking and non-emotion driven deliberation as we can muster, and be ready to update them as new data comes in.

Yep, we can do better. Even as social media rewards the extremes, we can strive to be more level headed and less playground level.

Take care of that messed up back! Happy weekend!

!ALIVE !BBH !UNI !PIZZA !LADY

It's far easier to jump on a bandwagon than it is to pause and reflect, analyze available data, and form an opinion while keeping it contingent on changing information.

I just saw a other claim that his position as DOGE czar and his sudden wealth are somehow related. Sure, there was a chain of first one thing and then the other, but the causal link is missing from this social media analysis. Non sequitur, or, it does not follow. It's a classic post hoc fallacy to say A following B alone proves that B caused A.

I'm a big fan of the post hoc, ergo propter hoc logical fallacy.

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post_hoc_ergo_propter_hoc

Yep, just because it happens before, or even right before something else, doesn't necessarily mean it caused the something else. It may have, but it may not have.

Thanks for the post and interaction, I appreciate you! Have a great week ahead!

(And if you do, I won't claim my last sentence caused it.) 😃👍

!ALIVE !BBH !UNI !PIZZA !LADY

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