A case for $1 SPS in the next month.

in LeoFinance23 days ago (edited)



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The Splinterlands FOMO is going to hit hard this month.



It's going to hit hard and it's going to hit fast.



If you haven't already you can get an account here:
Splinterlands


For anybody who is paying attention to @splinterlands their growth has been nothing short of phenomenal. Thousands of new users daily and not only the top rated game on dappradar.com but the most active app across all blockchains overtaking pancakeswap just today.



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Ref:Splinterlands

They are single handedly bringing mass adoption to the hive blockchain and opening it up to a range of new users.



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Ref:Penguinpablo.

57,969 Users in the past week alone. 48,699 the week before. Those are not small numbers in the blockchain world and overtaking pancakeswap is a huge achievement. I know that there are bots in the mix but I'm also seeing new users posting to splintertalk and in discord so there is interest there from the gaming community.

Growing week on week with new cards, players, excitement there is a lot to look forward to.
A lot of different factors have led to this recent surge in growth but a combination of media coverage for #playtoearn games. SPS dropping at the same time with Yield guild striking up a partnership with the game.
Add to this the new rental market allowing players to jump in at any level or the shortage of cards since untamed ran out.

It's all of this and more.

Maybe luck, maybe skill or maybe just right place, right time but whatever it was Splinterlands is on the cusp of something bigger than we could have imagined.

So many people have jumped in looking enviously at the existing player base sitting on cards that are out of reach for the average user.

SPS has been a huge factor in all of this as we waited for more details on it's use case we eagerly waited for more information.


This week has brought it all into the light and now people can start makings plans for the new chaos legion cards.



Chaos Legion is coming!!!



Looking at the latest announcement post from the @splinterlands team we can see how it is all going to play out.

You can read the official update here, Splinterlands chaos legion.


They have given us a lot to think about but the main points are:

  • Presale starts the 18th October.
  • 15M packs to be printed.
  • $4 per pack.
  • Bonus packs with large purchases.
  • Airdrops at scheduled sales milestones.
  • Presale will need vouchers to qualify.
  • Extra perks for presale purchases.
  • Vouchers will be dropped according to SPS stake.
  • 33,333.333 vouchers minted daily for 30 days.
  • Vouchers will be tradable on the markets.
  • Guaranteed airdrops every 50 packs bought.
  • Two mission formats for new cards and all cards.



The math.



The math is very simple. There is nowhere near enough vouchers for the demand that is going to be there. It's very simple math.

Now a lot of smaller users will earn partial vouchers which can be traded on the market but we have no idea yet where the price will land on that one.

I think that the @splinterlands team put it best,

The point is to incentive the behavior that we want our community to engage in: stake SPS tokens for a long time. This system essentially tokenizes the exact highest and best action the community can engage in, and going forward VOUCHERS will play a crucial element in sales, promotions, and rewards in the game.

So how is it all going to work out for the users?

At the moment there are just over 100M SPS staked in the system.

I currently have 25k SPS staked in the system. This would entitle me to a grand total of 8.3 SPS per day.

Now i want to buy 2k packs in the presale if it works out and as this stands i will only be able to get 250 vouchers organically. This number will move slightly as more SPs get staked, minted ect...

But it gives a rough idea of where the account stands. An account with 2M collection power which is not that small, not that big.

That makes SPS a very valuable commodity to me and also to all of the players who feel that they have missed out to date and want in on the action. I know that they can wait until after the presale and it becomes a free for all but it wont have the same effect. You won't get all of the bonuses and you won't be part of the next wave of "lucky" early adopters.

That's part one. Part two is also in the announcement post.

Chaos Legion packs will be priced at $4.00 USD each during the presale, and will be able to be purchased using Credits, DEC, or SPS, and there will be a 10% discount for any presale pack purchases made using the Splintershards (SPS) token.

10% discount is nothing to be sniffed at and when players are ready to make the buy it makes sense to trade for SPS from other crypto's and jump straight in for 40c off every pack. If they are buying in bulk they will get 10% in extra packs and suddenly you are getting a very good deal on the new cards.



SPS price action.



Looking at the movement from the past month we can see where the announcement hit the market and how things have been moving since.




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Nice steady increases with a slight pull back but very positive movement. We still have a long way to go until the end of the presale at November 17th and I can see the FOMO kicking in very hard over the next month.

As more posts and hype come out in October we will see more movement. When the vouchers hit the open market we will see where the price lands and if SPS starts making some good gains we will see people buying it for a profit and 10% discount on the new packs. Smart money is already buying up supply before the rest of the investors make the same decision.

It makes the most sense and i can see it heading towards a dollar at least before the end of the presale as existing holders stake as much as possible to get the free vouchers too. A lot of factors point to supply drying up at the same time that demand shoots up. That is a sure fire way to see price increases.

It should be very interesting over the next month or so.

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The hardest thing for me to do every day, is decide where to park that SPS lol

I've been just staking but still, the LP's are very attractive too. I like the way this is trending though. $1 SPS could be real sooner than we think!

A good idea is to park SPS as liquid SPS ;-)

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It's hard to know where to put it for now, but the one thing that i do know is that i need as much as possible for next month. Now i just need to keep gathering it all up.

I think we will see that big push forward once the presale opens up and people start trying to get involved.

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All I can say is I am happy for the progress of splinterlabds and whatever happens there is publicity for the hive block chain.

I am still trying to figure out the blockchain

Hey, if you have any question about the blockchain, I can point you to some helpful information and podcasts.
I only started this past February, but I feel I have a good understanding now, as I have tried to educate myself by finding the helpful blog posts and podcasts that have been made to help smooth the onboarding process

Thank you ... I will follow you up and ask a lot.

Are you on discord?

I am on discord

Username?

It's all great publicity. Every new person that looks at the game is indirectly looking at hive and opens up the chain to lots of new possibilities.

Even if a developer is looking to make a new game and they see the success from this one, suddenly hive enters the equation as a good place to build as it already has some success.

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I should probably stop selling my sps into dec. Im standing at about 25k staked myself as well. Id be happy with 200 packs. What i fear is that the vouchers might become more valuable than the packs they buy.
I dont want to be tempted to sell them. Lol

I'm going the opposite way now. Selling all my DEC to SPS for the pack sales. Even if i don't get enough vouchers i think that SPS will shoot up and the vouchers will be worth something anyway.

Better to have them and sell them than to not have them. 100k SPS would be nice. In theory.

I was just typing a similar post before I went to bed last night then I came across yours on Twitter this morning.

The voucher system may sustain this bull run for SPS. Since vouchers are only limited to 33,333 a day, that means if you want to continue earning them you will have to stake SPS for the entire 30 days.

I wonder how much 1 voucher will go for on the secondary market.

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The voucher system may sustain this bull run for SPS. Since vouchers are only limited to 33,333 a day, that means if you want to continue earning them you will have to stake SPS for the entire 30 days.

I think that everybody is planning their strategies a the moment to get the most out of the airdrop. There are lots of factors but most will b bought in the last few days as everybody tries to maximize sps and vouchers.

I find it odd that they use the term voucher. Use of this word historically means you can redeem something but in this case you still have to buy the pack after getting the 'voucher'. I wonder how many people will buy a voucher on the secondary market without realizing they still have to pay $4 for the pack. Seems like a UX fail just to circlejerk speculators and create an awkward use case. It creates a lot of friction for newer players who want to get in which seems to be at odds with the idea of making a new format so the game is more accessible.

I can see where you are coming from but over here we use the term voucher as a general term for claiming anything. It's just a voucher to say that you can claim a pack when there is huge demand and stops others from claiming something that you are ahead of them for.

Anyway, people without vouchers will be able to buy as soon as the presale is over as there will be plenty packs to go around and they will all be released for play at the same time. No reason for any friction as everybody who wants to buy can buy. They just won't get the extra perks of being a premium member which comes form large investment in the game from an early stage.

I wonder if SPS could eventually overtake Hive in market cap. Right now SPS is sitting at #512 on coinmarketcap and Hive is at #181. I'd expect in the next couple months that SPS will make it into the 300's or 400's.

I on't think so as it is just a one year airdrop but it could be very valuable down the line as the team has said it will be part of all future promotions and have a lot of perks in the game.

We are lucky to be here and get it for free as in the future it will be expensive to get a hold of any SPS since the supply will keep going down over time. Chaos legion should burn a large chunk of it with that 10% discount and this is only the first sale.

It should become a $10 token at some stage if we can hold long enough to see and the game keeps building it's metaverse.

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Hey i am kinda sure they said it is not burned when you buy packs with it, the SPS just goes to the company as revenue.

I came to a very similar conclusion... With all the SPS being staked, where will the liquid SPS come from for buying 1000 packs? I'm sure people with big wallets will want to get these 10% discount. So now I have BUSD and I want to buy packs. I will definitely first swap my BUSD to SPS and then pay with a 10% discount. The problem where will the SPS come from if everybody stakes it... You are totally right, all the ingredients are in place for a very volatile and explosive SPS market :-)

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But if sps I pegged to market price, even if sps hits $4 it will just be 1 sps per pack

Exactly, that's why it might be interesting keeping some SPS liquid just to buy packs with them.

Agree !PIZZA

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THat's the hope. Then we just need enough vouchers to take advantage of that which is going to be an issue.

If we saw it at $4 per pack then everybody would want to trade SPS for packs and it would be a free for all. That is why the vouchers will be key to getting in on the deal.

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At the moment i'm selling DEC to SPS every day as i earn it form the rental market. I'm hoping to stack a lot of it before the new packs drop since i think the price will shoot up.

If i can stake enough now it will give me even more for the presale and hopefully the price will rise to make it a lot cheaper for those packs. In theory if the price rises high enough. I will be able to get in on the chaos presale for free with my airdrop SPS as the fund for new packs.

We will have to keep an eye on it as the time moves closer so that we get the best deal possible.

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It just seems like the sale of chaos legion is going to be quite expensive. I wonder if its better to be part of the pre-sale or just sell the packs and get the packs afterwards. With how much people want on packs but not enough SPS for vouchers, I think prices might be quite elevated.

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That's a tough call to make but if you have the vouchers already then pre-sale is the way to go in my opinion. If you don't it could be expensive.

Luckily with the SPS airdrop we can use that for what is pretty much free packs as they have given us the funds to buy them already. It's great for long term players who have put money into the game already as they are being rewarded.

If you don't get in pre-sale it's not a problem as there will be lots of packs left afterwards for the rest of the community. Just without all of the perks.

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