The Speculation Game of SPS and Splinterlands

in LeoFinance24 days ago

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The Speculation Game of SPS and Splinterlands

When it comes to crypto let's be honest a large majority of it is speculation as to if you feel development changes, blockchain updates and so on will play an important factor in the chain and increase the price. This speculation game also blends into stocks as you buy a stock based on information you gathered and then speculate if you think the price and demand for that stock will climb.

This also applies to crypto gaming now and with the recent announcement of how the next Chaos packs will be dropped all 15 million of them the speculation game starts to come into play. So let's speculate a bit and feel free to jump in the comments section and drop your thoughts.

What Could Possibly Drive Value to SPS

At the moment we know a number of things as to what SPS tokens will be used for as well as what they currently are used for. We can compile this data and start to apply it to how other games have reacted to such things. Let's make that list now... *Of course this list could change or update so be sure to look at the official announcements from Splinterlands team.

Currently You Can Use SPS For

  • Staking rewards at about 90% APR at the point of writing this
  • Staking enough gets you entry into a few high paying tournaments
    Other factors of staking
  • It takes 4 weeks to unstake at the rate of 25% per week
  • It can be openly traded if unstaked

Coming Soon With The Launch of Chaos Packs

  • SPS can be used to buy packs during the prelaunch for 1 month and has a 10% discount for doing so that means $0.40 off each pack as they sell for $4 each
  • Staked SPS will airdrop you vouchers to buy packs in the prelaunch phase at the rate of 33,333 vouchers per day across everyone who is staking that means at the moment roughly 3,000 staked SPS per voucher per day.

About the packs

  • If bought during the prelaunch there are a number of bonuses that you get including one exclusive card that can only be found in this way (or later the open market)

All of these bonuses and perks add up to a lot in just the prelaunch phase but we also have air drops that will happen of cards ever 1 million packs sold. That means that getting packs early could land you hundreds of dollars worth of new cards over the course of the next few months as airdrops happen.

So the speculation comes into play...
If packs cost $4 and you have to have a voucher to buy them early and all of the bonuses above come into play with having bought a pack early where does that put the voucher price?

*Remember this article is pure speculation and is not investment advise. Do your own research and takes responsibility for your own actions.

The voucher gives you access to

  • All 13 future air drops
  • That includes one very exclusive card only available from presale
  • Buying 1,000 packs ore more gets you a title called The Legionnaire
    *Top 6 buyers of packs during presale get to work with the Splinterlands team to create their own legendary summoner.

Personally I was lucky enough to be able to take part on this back in beta during the kick starter of which I got a gold version of my card seen here. *I'm not sure if that will be the case with these

Buying 2,000 packs lands you a 20% additional pack bonus of 400 packs at $4 each $1,600 at least in value.

Important Factors

  • Even though you're buying prelaunch packs they are the same as the packs after launch which will be selling at the default price of $4 each. That means your prelaunch packs will most likely hold a $4 price tag until all Chaos packs are sold out which are 15 million.

  • I expect some SPS burn for the 10% discount but I honestly have no idea how much will get burned. This burning should increase the value of the SPS token as more player jump on board and start staking as well as the burn factor reducing the supply.

Finally what do I expect the price of SPS to be?
*Again remember this article is for entertainment purposes only and is not financial advise. Do your own research.

Because of the burn plus the demand of SPS tokens I believe we will see at least double in price. This is the first real case use case for SPS tokens which holds some serious value. Even at 10% off that would make the value of the SPS token itself a $0.40 factor in demand, scarcity, lock up period and bonuses on top of that and I see us easily at $0.70 each just before and mid way into the presale.

I also believe we could see it well over $1 each as the demand for the tokens and players increases. This is the first time that new players finally can get in at $4 a pack instead of paying $30+ a pack as we have been seeing. That in itself holds some serious value as more players will now have a vested stake in the game.

The other thing is I believe towards the end of the presale and when it's over we will see a price decrease from whatever new highs we hit. Simply because the use case of the token becomes obsolete. I do believe that SPS tokens will continue to have the 10% discount for buying new packs and because of that it means that they should at least hold a $0.40 value.

Let me know your thoughts what do you think the price of SPS token will be before Chaos prelaunch, during prelaunch and after prelaunch. Let me know in the comments.

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta

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I expect some SPS burn for the 10% discount but I honestly have no idea how much will get burned. This burning should increase the value of the SPS token as more players jump on board and start staking as well as the burn factor reducing the supply.

I didn't know about the burning SPS angle and I think it will be a good deflationary instrument and this alone should boost the price quite a bit. Still, I see that the supply got increased from 220,000,000 to 240,000,000, do you know which is the real Total Max Supply?

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Posted Using LeoFinance Beta

Continues to pump out from various places and some are not even in effect yet.
Right now we have

  • Airdrop for another 300 days 400million SPS tokens or 13.33% of the supply
    Each month 37,500,000 tokens will be dropped (Reduced by 1% every month)
  • 7.5 Million Ranked battles (not yet added)
  • 7.5 Million Staking rewards per month
  • 7.5 Million Liquidity pool incentives (I think this is CUBs DEC pool but I'm honestly not sure)
  • 6.25 Million Land Expansion (no details on this yet as land isn't used)
  • 3.75 Million Oracle Rewards (used to decentralizes the system and create swaps between exchanges)
  • 2.5 Million Tournament Prizes (I've seen these active as of late and it costs SPS to get in which I think are burned?)
  • 2.5 Million Guild Brawls (I haven't seen this added in yet.)

I am new here and I have read lots about this game
Looks so fantastic and I have to learn it as far as possible

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta

I'm still learning it :)

I only have around 300 sps at the moment so I'm likely not going to benefit from vouchers so I wonder what my best play would be. Maybe not stake my sps and sell as it increases.

I like playing the game but I don't think I'll ever play above bronze.

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta

It really comes down to you in terms of wanting to do it as an investment or simply playing because you enjoy it and enjoy collecting the cards etc. 300 SPS is 300 SPS being staked it does give you things and you can consider them all freebie extras really. We are still very early in the space of what SPS will do this is the first big use case for them. Besides that the only thing they did was stake to earn more and small buy ins for large prized tournaments.

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The thing that I forsee is that because of the voucher system, people will stake a lot of SPS prior to the pre-sale. This will have an overall effect on the staking rate of SPS. Secondly, if I want to buy packs in pre-sale, what I would do is to first swap whatever I have in SPS and then buy the packs with SPS and profit from the 10% discount. With reduced liquidity because of staking and increased demand for buying packs, I believe that SPS can appreciate quite a lot during the pre-sale...