In a comment today @mytechtrail wanted to know what miner would have the better return CTPM or WORKERBEE?
I have often tried to understand how mining exactly works for hive-engine tokens and I decided to have a deeper look into it. Now that I understand a bit better where to look for the settings of the tokens, I will try to come up with an answer.
One way of doing would be what most other people are doing. They take the data of somebody who has a lot of miners and look at the price of his miners and how much rewards he gets. The problem with this approach is that the result is only valid if somebody has a big amount of miners.
Let me explain how the miners work
Every hour, among all the staked miners, in a random manner a certain amount of miners get a payout. The thing is that the chances to get such a payout increases with the number of miners that you own and decreases with the amount of miners in general that are staked.
The number and the amount of rewards remains always the same and is independent of the number of miners that are staked
How I try to approach the calculation of a return for a miner
These are the variables that come into play:
The number and amount of rewards given as miner rewards
The number of staked miners
The price for a miner and for the token
This becomes quite a complex calculation. Let's look at these different numbers for both of the miners:
The number and amount of rewards given as miner rewards
For CTPM every hour, 20 miners get about 1.247 CTP
For WORKERBEE every hour, 10 miners get about 1.1 BEE
The number of staked miner
There are 76'759 staked CTPM
There are 235'919 staked WORKERBEE
The price for a miner and for a token
CTP costs around 0.40 Hive (this tends to change a lot lately). CTPM cost 1.25 Hive.
BEE cost around 0.77 Hive. WORKERBEE cost 1.95 Hive.
So with this information how can I come up with a kind of comparison?
To be able to have something comparable, I wanted to know how many miners I would need to have a 100% chance to get 1 payout per day. This was quite a complex calculation and I hope I didn't make any mistakes.
I came to the following results:
I need 160 CTPM to have a 100% chance to get 1 payout per day.
I need 983 WORKERBEE to have the same chances.
How to calculate the ROI on this?
I make the hypothesis that with 100% chances to win 1 payment, we would get only 1 payment. This means that we would earn 1 payment a day. For CTP this would be:
1.247 x 0.4 = 0.4988 Hive
For WORKERBEE this would be:
1.1 x 0.77 = 0.847 Hive
Now we need to divide this number by the price of the amount of each miner and multiply it by the number of miners needed to have a 100% chance to get a payout. Then we need to multiply that by 365 to get the APR.
For CTP:
(0.4988 / (160*1.25) ) * 365 = 91.031%
For WORKERBEE:
(0.847 / (983*1.95) ) * 365 = 16.128%
Conclusion
There are a lot of approximations and assumptions in my calculations and I believe the only thing that we can deduct with certainty from all of it is that at the moment you have a much better return with CTPM than with WORKERBEE.
What should also be remembered here is that this is only valid if you have the necessary amount of Miners to insure that you have a 100% probability to get 1 payment per day. This is directly linked to the number of staked miners in general. To make sure to keep this probability, you would need to constantly increase the number of your miners.
Over time, with more staked miners, your APR will constantly diminish if you don't increase the number of miners at the same speed as the number of miners evolves.
The price for the tokens and the miners themselves play naturally also a very important role in this calculation.
If you have only a few miners, you will be loosing out
I see the biggest problem with miners is when you don't have enough miners to insure that you get this 100% probability. If you have a very small amount, you might not get any payments in months and your return would be much lower, if not total null. A solution would be to join your miners in a mining pool to get a better return. If people put their miners together they increase their chances to get rewards and then the mining pool can simply distribute the rewards equally according to the number of tokens that each person contributes.
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